We Ranked 27 Power 4 Offensive Coordinators Using 8 Core Performance Metrics and Here’s What We Found
By Mike Kuchar
Co-Founder/Senior Research Manager
X&O Labs
@MikeKKuchar
Offensive coordinators build their brand on efficiency, not wins. It’s the “take what a defense gives you” mindset, where you “you don’t go broke taking a profit” is one of the more common mantras in offensive staff rooms. Because if you have the patience to do that enough times in the game, it will typically result in wins. In time, offensive efficiency is the constant that keeps coordinators in jobs and programs in the win column. So, at X&O Labs, we have created an analytical system that defines offensive efficiency in 8 core performance metrics and tracks and identifies the most efficient offensive coordinators at the FBS level.
We did our research by segmenting and filtering game data over the last three football seasons that are relevant to every eligible coordinator at the Power 4 level (we define our eligibility requirements below). We then input them into our analytical system to produce a composite ranking for each offensive coordinator. Because we had several coordinators coming from a variety of different programs and conferences, we had to level the competitive playing field.
To gauge an ideal sample size, coordinators had to have at least three consecutive years of play-calling experience. That was enough of a buffer to weather the opposing defensive coordinator’s learning curve. We also factored in games only against Power 4 (or Power 5 conferences from previous years), and ranked opponents were counted towards the coordinator’s data set. No “garbage time” or perceived cupcake opponents were accounted for.
In total, we analyzed play-callers that had a minimum sample size of 10 total games or at least 1,000 analyzed plays against Power 4 or ranked opponents over the last three consecutive seasons. This includes coordinators who came from lower-level tiers, like Mike Shannahan (James Madison), Marcus Arroyo (UNLV), and Will Stein (UTSA), who competed against Power 4 schools during their tenure.
SPOILER ALERT: Offensive mainstays like Kiffin, Sarkisian, and Heupel all made the list, but where they are listed may be a bit of a surprise. What’s even more telling is that three of the top 10 OC’s have less than five years of play-calling experience at the FBS level. So, yes, we are in the midst of a youth movement.
The Data Set Pre-Requisites:
To have these comparatives be as competitive as possible, we segmented our data into the following criteria:
- Games that were conducted during the 2022, 2023 and 2024 seasons (3-season period), which includes regular season, playoffs, and bowl games.
- Games that were registered against Power 4 (or Power 5 conferences from previous years) and ranked opponents were counted towards the coordinator’s data set. This includes coordinators that came from lower-level tiers like Mike Shannahan (James Madison), Marcus Arroyo (UNLV), and Will Stein (UTSA), who competed against Power 4 schools during their tenure.
- Games that were registered against ranked opponents at the time of competition, even if they were not Power 4 or Power 5 conference opponents.
- There was a minimum sample size of 10 total games or at least 1,000 analyzed plays.
The Eligible Candidates (in no particular order):
Having said all of that, we were left with the following coordinators to analyze:
Editor’s Note: There are a few head coaches on this list who have been credited for calling plays at some point during the last three seasons (Sarkisian, Kiffin, Malzahn, Brohm). These coaches were listed with the offensive coordinator by title.
- Aaron Roderick, BYU (1,760 plays analyzed)
- Andy Kotelnicki (Kansas: 1,251 plays analyzed, PSU: 870 plays analyzed)
- Barry Lunney, Illinois (2,238 plays analyzed)
- Ben Arbuckle (Western Kentucky: 174 plays analyzed, Washington State University: 1,007 plays analyzed)
- Jeff Brohm/Brian Brohm (University of Louisville: 1,565 plays analyzed, Purdue: 867 plays analyzed)
- Brian Lindgren (Michigan State: 639 plays analyzed, Oregon State: 1,194 plays analyzed)
- Casey Woods, SMU (1,249 plays analyzed)
- Chip Lindsey (UCF: 576 plays analyzed, UNC: 1,513 plays analyzed)
- Collin Klein (Kansas State: 1,532 plays analyzed, Texas A&M: 1,936 plays analyzed)
- Dana Holgersen (Houston: 721 plays analyzed, Nebraska: 783 plays analyzed)
- Des Kitchings, University of Virginia (1,999 plays analyzed)
- Garrett Riley (Clemson: 1,618 plays analyzed, TCU: 862 plays analyzed)
- Gus Malzahn, University of Central Florida (1,785 plays analyzed)
- Jeff Lebby (Miss State: 636 plays analyzed, Oklahoma: 1,669 plays analyzed)
- Josh Henson (Purdue: 588 plays analyzed, USC: 1,281 plays analyzed)
- Josh Heupel/Alex Golesh, Tennessee (2,082 plays analyzed)
- Kendal Briles (Arkansas: 837 plays analyzed, TCU: 1,643 plays analyzed)
- Kirby Moore, University of Missouri (2,118 plays analyzed)
- Kirk Ciarrocca (Minnesota: 722 plays analyzed, Rutgers: 1,488 plays analyzed)
- Steve Sarkisian, Texas (2,406 plays analyzed)
- Lane Kiffin/Charlie Weis Jr., University of Mississippi (2,377 plays analyzed)
- Marcus Arroyo (Arizona State: 795 plays analyzed, UNLV: 331 plays analyzed
- Mike Denbrock (Notre Dame: 860 plays analyzed, LSU: 1,479 plays analyzed)
- Mike Shanahan (Indiana: 605 plays analyzed, James Madison: 125 plays analyzed)
- Shannon Dawson (Houston: 144 plays analyzed, Miami: 1,456 plays analyzed)
- Tim Beck (New Mexico State: 251 plays analyzed, Vanderbilt: 882 plays analyzed)
- Will Stein (Oregon: 1,565 plays analyzed, UTSA: 169 plays analyzed)
The 8 Core Performance Metrics:
We created a formula based on eight core performance metrics to rank the play-callers. This process came from interviewing dozens at all levels of football to research what metrics are most representative of an offensive play caller’s efficiency.
The eight metrics are detailed below (in order of importance):
- Points per drive– a numerical average of how many points this offense produces per offensive drive.
- Drives ending with a score percentage– the percentage of offensive drives that end with points, either a touchdown or a field goal.
- Red Zone TD Percentage– the percentage of times this offense produces a touchdown (not a high-percentage field goal) inside the 20 yard line.
- 3rd down conversion rate– the percentage of times this offense converts a first down when there is no subsequent fourth down play registered.
- Two-minute efficiency– the percentage of times this offense produces points (a touchdown or a field goal) in the last two minutes of a half and the last two minutes of a game.
- Explosive play percentage– the percentage of times this offense generates an offensive play of 15 yards or more.
- Yards per game– the numerical average of how many yards this offense produces per game.
- Yards per play– the numerical average of how many yards this offense produces per play.
What Metrics Were Not Valued and Why:
- Wins – We know that this is the only stat that counts as it relates to a team’s productivity, but there are far too many variables (defense, turnovers, special teams, head coach’s clock management, etc.) that affect games which we cannot let interfere with the offensive coordinator’s efficiency numbers.
- Scoring Offense – This metric almost made the cut, but if we used it, we’d have to consider any “garbage time” numbers where an offense scored late in the game when it was not in doubt. Quite simply, we felt that the two-minute metric was more indicative of the efficiency of the play caller simply because he scored when he needed to, not because maybe he wanted to.
- First Downs Generated – We realize this quantification is good for the stat books, but it doesn’t validate the ability of an offensive coordinator to finish in the end zone.
- Turnovers – While some can pin things like interceptions on coaching (or lack thereof) this mainly falls as a human error statistic based on the player’s performance.
- Time of Possession – This may have been a relevant metric a decade ago, but we cannot, in good faith, use this as a measure of efficiency. Many of the coordinators in this data set work in quick-tempo, no-huddle operations.
Why This Approach Works:
- It Prevents Single-Metric Dominance: No coordinator can rank highly based on just one strong metric
- It Emphasizes Efficiency Over Volume: Points per drive and scoring percentage get the highest weights.
- It accounts for Situational Success: Red zone and two-minute performance are crucial for the coordinator’s evaluation.
- It Balanced Assessment: All metrics contribute, but scoring efficiency is prioritized.
The Commonalities of Elite Coordinators:
These coordinators seemed to fall within the composite scoring range of 70-89 and possessed the following characteristics. Keep in mind, these numbers were all generated against similar competition.
- Points Per Drive Excellence – The average in this group was 2.58, which surpassed the national average of 2.0. All but one of these coordinators exceeded 2.40.
- Scoring Drive Efficiency – The average for this group was a 43.1% scoring rate. The national average is 37.8%.
- Red Zone Mastery – The average for this group was 64.7% and seven of them achieved a 60% touchdown rate in the red zone. That is 20% higher than the national average among all coaches in this category.
- Situational Excellence – This group averaged a 44.4% conversion rate on third down, whereas the national average was 41%.
- Explosive Play Generation – This group generated an explosive play (15 yards or more) on 12.8% of snaps.
- High Volume Production – This group averaged 438 yards per game against similar competition. The national average last season was 386.
Best in Class (Based on each Category):
While the composite score generated is representative of each of the following 8 performance metrics, these were the best coordinators in each category over the last three seasons:
Metric 1: Points Per Drive:

Metric 2: Drives Ending with a Score Percentage:

Metric 3: Red Zone Scoring Percentage

Metric 4: Third Down Conversion Rate:

Metric 5: Two-Minute Scoring Efficiency:

Metric 6: Explosive Play Percentage:

Metric 7: Yards Per Game:

Metric 8: Yards Per Play:

Most Top 5 Appearances:
Before we reveal the total composite scoring and ranking, we wanted to present the median number of appearances that each coach had in the Top 5 of each category.
Will Stein (Oregon)- Top 5 in 6 Categories
Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss)- Top 5 in 6 Categories
Shannon Dawson (Miami)- Top 5 in 5 Categories
Andy Kotelnicki (Penn State)- Top 5 in 4 Categories
The Top 10 Composite Scoring: Ranking the Most Efficient Offensive Coordinators in FBS Football
These metrics were then combined to produce a composite score from 0-100, with each category weighted in order of importance from 1-8. This generated a top 10 list of college football’s most efficient offensive coordinators:
To see the full list, including each coordinator’s composite score, ranking, and why they made the cut, please log in or click the ‘JOIN’ button now to start your membership with X&O Labs.
Based on our composite scoring model, which emphasizes scoring efficiency, situational performance, and explosive output, the results produced a clear hierarchy of offensive coordinators operating at the highest level of efficiency. The findings reveal a blend of veteran play-callers and emerging talent — with several coordinators outperforming expectations based on tenure or program profile.
To maintain the integrity of our research and provide full access to our proprietary data, the final rankings — including composite scores and coordinator-by-coordinator analysis — are available exclusively to X&O Labs members.
Please log in now or join X&O Labs to view the complete findings and in-depth performance profiles.